Problem 178 Solution

Let's answer the question what is the probability that the bill does NOT contain all three numbers. Let's assume that our three chosen numbers are 7, 8, and 9.

The number of ways the serial number can contain none of the three numbers, or be composed of only digits 0 to 6 is 78.

The number of ways the serial number can contain at least one 7 but no 8 or 9 is 88-78. We must subtract 78 because there are that many numbers that contain only the digits 0 to 6 but no 7. Likewise the number of ways to add at least one 8 or one 9 is also 88-78. So the number of ways the serial numbers will contain just one digit out of {7,8,9} is 3*(88-78).

Now let's consider the number of ways the serial number can have at least one 7 and 8 but no 9. The number of all combinations leaving out the 9 is 98. However some of those have no 7 or 8 digits. The number of combinations with 7 but no 8 is 88-78. This is also the number of combinations with 8 but no 7. We must also subtract the number of combinations with only 0-6, which is 78. So the number of combinations with at least one 7 and one 8, but no 9, is 98-2*(88-78)-78. Mutliply this by three for the number of ways the serial number can omit the 7 and 8 but leave the other two chosen numbers. So the probability the serial number will have 2 out of our 3 numbers is 3*(98-2*(88-78)-78).

So the probability that the serial number will not contain all three chosen numbers is:
(78 + 3*(88-78) + 3*(98-2*(88-78)-78)))/108 =
(3*98-3*88+78)/108 = 0.84573316.

To get the probability will contain all three chosen numbers just subtract the number above from one, or 1 - (3*98-3*88+78)/108 = 0.15426684.

Michael Shackleford, A.S.A.